Domestic stock markets would be driven by inflation numbers, global trends, and the last batch of Q4 earnings this week, analysts said. Markets will also react to industrial production data and consumer inflation numbers that were released after market hours on Friday. "Participants will react to macroeconomic data viz. IIP and CPI first, which were released post-market hours on Friday.
At a time when investors are preferring higher-risk investment products like thematic and small-cap mutual fund (MF) schemes, some fund houses are exploring the possibility of going further down the market-capitalisation (m-cap) ladder to unearth newer investment opportunities. HDFC MF had filed papers with the capital markets regulator - the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) - earlier this year for an active micro-cap scheme. Some more fund houses are keen on launching such schemes, say industry observers.
The change in debt fund taxation is seen as boosting the demand for hybrid funds. It is no surprise then that asset management companies (AMCs) have launched a raft of new products in the multi-asset category. However, they seem to be divided on the asset mix and approach. The multi-asset space, which provides fund houses ample scope to innovate, has seen five launches in as many months.
The government has held back the release of complete data of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for April, as was done for the same month last year due to the COVID-19 lockdown. Last year in June, the National Statistical Office (NSO) had held back the release of complete IIP data due to the effect of the nationwide lockdown on factory output. This year too industrial production was hit due to lockdown restrictions imposed by states to curb the second wave of the pandemic.
Barring fertiliser, all seven sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, steel, cement and electricity -- recorded negative growth in July.
The current up move, according to analysts, closely resembles the rally post the global financial crisis in 2008-09, not just in quantum and speed, but also the way small-and mid-cap indices outperformed large-cap peers.
India may have to lean more on West Asian nations for supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), a cooking fuel, in the coming years after Indian state-run refiners drew up big plans to diversify into producing more profitable petrochemicals. This shift leads to reduced LPG output, Indian refining executives said. The mantra for state-run oil companies, from Indian Oil Corporation (IndianOil) to liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer Petronet LNG, which are looking to diversify their businesses from lower-margin fuels, has been value-added petrochemicals.
The ministry of statistics and programme implementation on Friday released quick estimates of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) which showed the index value at 88.4 in May against 53.6 in April, indicating a graded pickup in industrial activity. The index stood at 135.4 in May 2019.
What came to the rescue of the IIP numbers in February were mining and electricity.
Retail inflation remained above the RBI's comfort level for the second consecutive month despite slipping slightly to 6.26 per cent in June while the factory output recorded a growth of 29.3 per cent in May, mainly on account of the base effect, the government data showed. The marginal slippage in the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation was noticed despite little firmness witnessed in the food inflation which inched up to 5.15 per cent in June from 5.01 per cent a month ago. Retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 6.3 per cent in May 2021 and 6.23 per cent in June 2020.
With the first quarter earnings season coming to an end, the domestic equity markets would be driven by global trends and trading activity of foreign investors this week, analysts said. The movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee against the dollar would also drive trends in the market. "Macroeconomic indicators, trends in global stock markets and FII activities will be pivotal in shaping market trends in the coming days," Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
Index of industrial production data had also shown that the sector grew at 3.1 per cent after contracting in the previous quarters.
India's industrial production growth remained subdued for the second straight month and expanded by 3.2 per cent in October, mainly due to the waning low base effect while mining, power and manufacturing sectors performed well. The manufacturing sector, which constitutes 77.63 per cent of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), grew two per cent in October, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday. The mining sector output rose 11.4 per cent in October, while power generation increased 3.1 per cent.
Wholesale inflation fell to a 4-month low of 1.31 per cent in August due to a decline in prices of vegetables and fuel, even though onion and potato prices spiked, according to official data released on Tuesday. Wholesale price index-based inflation fell for the second straight month in August after it hit a high of 3.43 per cent in May. Inflation in July was 2.04 per cent. In August last year, WPI inflation was (-) 0.46 per cent.
In 2024, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) implemented significant reforms, focusing on cooling down the derivatives segment, enhancing transparency and accountability in small and midsised enterprise (SME) listings, and deepening the fund management ecosystem.
'The economy is suffering (perhaps 'enjoying' is a better word) the lowest credit demand in decades; banks are struggling with stressed loans equivalent to near 10 per cent of GDP,' points out Devangshu Datta.
Barring crude oil and cement, all other sectors recorded positive growth in November. In October, these core sectors' output had grown by 8.4 per cent. In February this year, the growth rate contracted to 3.3 per cent.
Had you invested Rs 10,000 each in JSW Steel, Titan Company and Bajaj Finance 20 years ago, when they were just penny stocks (trading below Rs 10), you would have become a millionaire by now.
'Whether I am optimistic or pessimistic is not the issue; I am just going by the evidence available.' 'The Indian economy and financial sector are now well-placed and very resilient in dealing with any kind of spillover coming from the external world.'
Production of eight infrastructure sectors expanded by 3.8 per cent in December 2021 against a 0.4 per cent contraction in the same month last year on better show by coal, cement and refinery products, according to the official data released on Monday. Barring crude oil and steel, all sectors recorded positive growth in December 2021. The core sector industries had grown by 3.4 per cent in November 2021.
The mining sector grew by 4.3 per cent in June as against a dip of 4.6 per a year ago.
The wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation eased in January to 0.27 per cent, mainly due to moderation in prices of food items. WPI inflation was at 0.73 per cent in December 2023. The WPI inflation was in the negative zone from April to October and had turned positive in November at 0.39 per cent.
Industrial production expanded a provisional 3.4 per cent year-on-year in June.
In May, price growth for drugs was in negative territory at (-)1 per cent
D&B sees January IIP to decline by 0.5-1.5 per cent. Last month the factory output, as measured in terms of the index of industrial production, had contracted by 0.6 per cent.
The ongoing second quarter earnings, movement of oil benchmark Brent crude and the uncertainty in the Middle East would dictate terms in the domestic markets this week, analysts said. Furthermore, the activities of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) will also influence trading in the markets. "A slew of earnings reports from heavyweights expected this week will significantly impact market direction.
Multi-asset allocation funds emerged as the most popular option for MFs as they provided the needed flexibility.
Movement in the equity market this week will largely be dictated by quarterly earnings of blue-chip firms HDFC Bank and Hindustan Unilever, along with the announcement of WPI inflation data and global trends, analysts said. Trading activity of foreign investors, global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also guide the movement.
The manufacturing sector, a key indicator of economic activity, grew 10.6 per cent year-on-year in October.
The output of eight core sectors declined by 4.6 per cent in February, the steepest contraction in the last six months which experts said could drag the overall industrial production in the month into the negative territory. All the key segments, including coal, crude oil, natural gas, and refinery products, witnessed a decline in production, according to the official data released on Wednesday. The growth rate of the eight infrastructure sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity -- stood at 6.4 per cent in February 2020. Last time in August 2020, the sectors had recorded a negative growth of 6.9 per cent.
Production of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity contracted. The record contraction in the growth rate of eight core sectors will affect the Index of Industrial Production.
The wholesale price index-based inflation remained in the negative territory for the seventh straight month in October at (-) 0.52 per cent, on easing prices of food items. The WPI-based inflation rate has been in the negative zone since April and was at (-) 0.26 per cent in September, 2023. In October last year, WPI was at 8.67 per cent.
India's industrial production grew by 1 per cent in December, official data showed on Friday. According to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data, the manufacturing sector output grew by 1.6 per cent in December 2020.
The festive season will mean business for the steel industry as it is the time when automotive and consumer appliance companies bump up demand to prepare for higher sales, experts have said. Ranjan Dhar, chief marketing officer at ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India (AM/NS India), said that bookings by auto and consumer appliance industries are 20 per cent higher ahead of the festive season compared to last year. "While this could be for a couple of months, it could normalise later at approximately 10 per cent," he said.
Research and development (R&D) spending by BSE 100 companies has grown steadily, rising from 0.89 per cent of revenue in FY20 to 1.32 per cent in FY24, averaging around 1 per cent over the period in-between, according to data compiled from Bloomberg and company annual reports. Also, these companies more than doubled their R&D spending in absolute terms over these five years: From Rs 25,041 crore to Rs 63,072 crore. While this reflects a prioritisation of innovation, corporate R&D investment remains relatively conservative.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) has kept its outlook for India's economic growth unchanged at 7 per cent for the current fiscal year while forecasting a weaker-than-previously expected pace for developing Asia. ADB's 7 per cent growth projection for fiscal 2022-23 (April 2022 to March 2023), unchanged from its September forecast, compares to 8.7 per cent GDP growth in 2021-22. For 2023-24, the GDP growth has been kept unchanged at 7.2 per cent.
Haryana has done well in terms of economic growth over the last couple of decades. For it to continue to lead the growth ladder, the new government has to work hard on multiple dimensions, recommend Shishir Gupta and Rishita Sachdeva.
Jobs requiring AI skills carry a significant wage premium, with some roles offering up to a 25 per cent increase in wages, notes Manoj Nagpal, vice president, professional services, OpenText, an information management company.
Wholesale inflation rate declined marginally to 0.2 per cent in February compared to 0.27 per cent in the preceding month despite a slight uptick in the food basket. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation was in the negative zone from April to October and had turned positive in November at 0.26 per cent. The inflation in February 2023 was 3.85 per cent.
Wholesale price-based inflation remained in the negative territory for the fifth straight month in August at (-)0.52 per cent, but prices of food articles and fuel showed an uptick. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation rate has been in the negative since April and was (-)1.36 per cent in July. In August last year it was 12.48 per cent. Inflation in food articles remained in double digit at 10.60 per cent in August, lower than 14.25 per cent in July.
